Monday, September 12, 2016

RGSE type


f


mid May ... a delicate heel ... mid June, a point on a wedge ... and buying there would have produced a double in August, with a nice sell signal in the July top. (compare that to my comments on the March top in REXX. it's a puzzle. i think the REXX top pulled back more prominently, but you have to wonder whether that kind of thought can be meaningful. the idea is, sometimes you have to sell a sharp to right away, with the price down, and other times you can wait and sell at the top or even above it. can we learn to distinguish?)


early July, with the price under $4 ... i would have been saying it looked really good. scary, but very good. something about the way it meandered down from late June.


keep in mind - and that's an understatement - : stocks with the potential to double very fast also have the potential to become worthless really fast. you might end up with a double, or you might end up with a total loss. so, if you're right 75% of the time, you're a winner, maybe a big winner, but if you're only right 25% of the time, you're definitely a loser. if you're right 50% of the time, you break even, maybe. which will it be? we simply don't know. a system for note taking like this could possibly answer the question ... if your notes are very extensive. these notes here have a long way to go.


true, this here is two trades - mid June and mid July - both winners. still, that's a very small sample.


RGSE is currently working its way back to the July low, and i like it at that price. it should give some kind of signal, once it gets there.


the financials are certainly not rock solid, but they're not god-awful, either. it wouldn't take too much for them to be profitable and have a good net current asset ratio. they have what could be called a storied history - yes, this is the Real Goods we know and love. the founder is still at it, still laid back and smiling, and they've changed, adapted, too, it could be argued. back in 2013 a bump in revenues produced a monumental gain in the shares. it could be argued they're positioned for another such rally, or even more, and from a considerably lower price, now. certainly qualifies for my "buy a little low, sell at historic highs (or better, if things look good). if you're idea of "a little" is bigger than mine, you could make a big bundle in this. "a little" means a small part of your funds. for me, it means not more than a few hundred dollars, so this isn't going to make me an instant millionaire. for your short term plays, there are tops at 30, 40, 100, and 330, all levels to consider for taking profits, reducing or eliminating your risk, etc.


consider the (original) PSG post for a smidge more perspective, especially on the long term plan, and also risk, if you haven't seen it already

No comments:

Post a Comment