Sunday, February 7, 2016


this kind of chart signals that a company could go out of business. it also creates the possibility of large % moves.

an actual signal could develop here any time

this kind of chart signals that a company could go out of business. it also creates the possibility of large % moves.

an actual signal could develop here any time

an actual signal could develop at any time.

Aluminum Company of China. It's a super-giant. It's running 10% losses. It has strong book value. The chart has that quality of a company that could go out of business though less pronouncedly. What is it good for? A sudden double? The chart is certainly right. Then it pulls back close to 50%, but only for a matter of weeks or six months. Well, six months is actually a long time. Let's say given a month's time we can find a stock to double, then we can do it twice in two months and then this is ready again maybe.

this is an actual signal right now. my guess is it'll only go to 10 on the next move, but that move could well be starting as we watch. then it'll be back under 8, i guess, so this is not to buy, quite yet, but maybe not for too long. after that it's 20, i guess. the whole plan is to document these that are pretty much ready to move, and then watch them for signs they are actually ready to develop. in some cases it might take months. if i go back to the scan, can i find something actually ready?

this has more of the signs of readiness. now, it isn't completely done. there could be two weeks of low prices. if i really think about it, i can picture what a definitive signal would look like, coming out of this pattern. so, i have to wait. as for where it's going, there are tops at 12, 14 ... and 22 ... that could turn it back for more work in the 6s and 7s. i don't know about you, but i'm going to watch - and maybe see things - and learn.

nice! this does not look like a company that's going out of business. i wonder what the fundamentals are like (but i'm too lazy to look)

it's an interesting lens pattern since the dip in mid 2015 ... but is that a buy signal ... thinking hard ... i've been suckered by descending patterns like this again and again ... a dip to 4 is highly likely (50% chance), and that would be more convincing ... but then i would still need to wait for an actual signal.

it's a very compelling pattern, but i'm starting to see this: i can't rely on these kinds of patterns. they predict good things, but don't represent the buying moment.

it's interesting ... dipping ... looks long term good just from the chart ... but should do something sideways before making an actual move

it's basically a theme, here: i would have to buy this but now i know better, i guess. sure, it's a wedge, this last month of pattern, but there's no up in it, and no room for up in it, either. it's probably just another step and at some point we'll see another move lower, and some day, who knows when, an actual bottom pattern and buy signal.

it's very close to doing something, but probably not anything very significant

if it now did something on this monthly chart that resembles what it's doing on the daily chart - a steep decline with a banana shaped foot - then it would be something to watch quite closely. we'll see what develops

i pass this kind of chart up and don't even look at it. why? because it's up. am i making a mistakes?

it definitely ... i'll even say will ... go higher, and sort of right away. will it double? that's the thing about high priced stocks ... they might double, whereas a low priced stock - a stock that's down - might go up ten times, even a hundred times long term. what about the fundamentals? it must be a big company, but, anyway, p/e is good, p/b is too high to be defensive. that's my excuse? ok. anyway, no thought of buying it.

this seriously is ready to move. it's not a full breakout signal, but it looks very complete as a bottom. but where is it going? tops at 4 and 5 should be easily exceeded. what about tops at 7? it might hesitate, there, but that should be only momentary. well, if it makes it up to 25 in one big day, that should be a top. in fact, i kind of like that.

this is no safe investment for the long term. the fundamentals, i'm pretty sure, aren't sound at all. i mean, they could have something in the bag and anything could happen, i guess, but it's a situation without security. listen, i plan to invest only $100. if i win, i make a little money, and maybe pretty quick.

No comments:

Post a Comment