Saturday, October 1, 2016


Synopsis of entire note:

buy 3,000 ACPW at .29 and 30 RGSE at 3.82 Monday, and cancel ACST sell order.

definitely cancel my sell order. what a break! since it has taken its sweet old time, the order didn't fill, and now i'm in a position to reconsider. correct target is 5.

annoying. trend remains down. thinking about selling the shares just to get them out of my mind. still a dramatic chart, but ... i'm starting to see how such a stock needs to do something before it can soar.

i haven't highlighted this one before, although i've probably mentioned it, as i've been watching it for a long time. it just made an awesome inverted hammer on the daily chart, which is also awesome on the five day chart, and it's the definition of a distinctive pattern. thinking it over at length, it's probably headed for a dollar even, and then it'll settle down again. cool company but not completely out of development stage.


RGSE at 3.81 Monday morning, and as soon as it fills you place a stop order at 3.75, to sell. it could go to 14 next week. if it does that it would only be for moments, and if we can't sell it on the day it rallies to anywhere above 9 then the next day we try to sell it at 9. also, if u look at it during the day and it's anywhere above 10, and you feel like selling it at the market, just do it.

the rest of this RGSE post is just a story, except for the link to a chart at the end.

it was really cool the other day because i was watching RGSE up above 7, and it was making a pattern, three minute bars, and i was thinking "this is really great". come to think of it i could have (this was paper trading) placed a sell order at the market right then and i would have been assured of a sale, and probably very close to the top, which turned out to be a significant top. the pattern it made was a big green bar. it had been rallying more moderately and then it jumped up. i'm pretty sure this all happened in one day. ok, now i remember it and i know it did. it climbed in waves in the morning, and then early in the afternoon - NY time, i'm thinking - it made two big green three minute bars, and then right after that it topped out and now it's down 50% and i want to buy it again.

watching this was a great lesson. it did exactly what i thought it would do, to the extent i had an exact idea of what i thought it would do, only a day later than i said. i thought it could stop at 5.50, based on the chart from earlier in September, but i'm sure i also thought it might go to 7, which was marked by a classic pattern, the inverse hammer top in the 1st half of September plunge. then i was actively watching it as it went above 7 on the day of the big green candle. in the intraday chart it was making a very complete sell signal there ... but i was reluctant to sell it, thinking maybe the move would carry and break out and head for, you know, wherever. now it's down under 4, so, if we had sold (if we had owned it) at 7, we wouldn't be unhappy about it. Next: it's making a very nice buying pattern on the intraday charts, and now i understand it better. Basically, the target is 9. i mean, it sort of should be headed for 12, here. if it gets to twelve, that's almost certainly a top, and then it could start building a flag. my new basic rule is, if it's not a flag, it's not a buy. there are exceptions, but this isn't one of them. well, it is, but for a big, long term type move, it usually has to come out of a flag, or maybe always. OK, looking at this very carefully, the likely next top is at 11.80, and then it can start to build its flag for a move to 25. i'm optimistic about the company for the not too long term, but really making money in it now will require playing the fluctuations. actually, 11.80 should be exceeded on the next move, which i imminent, but only for a moment. after that the flag should return prices to essentially the current level. This two year chart was helpful.


synopsis: keep testing whether you can place a sell order at 3.45. maybe if it starts to move they'll let you place the order. if it does something but doesn't go to 3.45 i'll work out new instructions. chart link at bottom of post.

cool dew drop on the daily chart today. OK, obviously this makes spiky tops, which means selling at the tops will take careful attention. in each case of the 2016 tops, January, June, and July, it would have maybe been necessary to watch during the day to sell near the tops. in fact, let's take a look. in January, a top in the 2 to 2.30 area could have been predicted based on bottoms in October 2015. see the chart linked below. in June the top above 2.50 could have been predicted based on the January top. and in July a sell order at the level of the July 20 top, 2.40, would have been filled a few days later. This could each time have been done with in the market orders, so i guess you wouldn't have had to watch it intraday after all. i guess what i was thinking about is there was no second chance in any of these instances, where you could have sold it the next day or in the next week or something like that. so i'm expecting something similar this next time, too. now, July 13 was a higher bottom, and there have been higher bottoms since, and the current price qualifies as a higher bottom as long as it holds up. so, it is trending up. actually, if you look at the action just before the June top, June 6, June 7, and the action for two or three weeks before then, it looks a lot like the pattern that made me want to buy this, August 31 to September 19, say. and in June it poked above the earlier top, and this makes me think now it's going to poke above the June and July tops ... and even with a measure of authority, which i'm saying because the September pattern is a bit bigger and beefier than the June pattern. what does this mean? it means it's ready to go to the next level ... not to go there and stay there, but to test it. and where's the next level? well, it's explicitly market at 3.50. half of 3.50 is 1.75. we should be able to place an order at 3.50, but this may be the one where you tried to do that and couldn't. well, it's a quirky stock, but maybe if it has some kind of up day Fi will let you place that order.

you could place it under 3.50 somewhere, but i kind of like that top - it's at 3.45, actually. here's the yahoo chart.

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