Monday, July 4, 2016
Don't know whether this scan has been staring me in the face for years and I've just not been paying attention or whether it's something new but ... 39 stocks of considerable interest. Of course, I still need to pick one or another of them.
What I'm saying is if this breaks out above the multiple tops line it should move pretty fast. Hmm. How much should it move?
Hmm. Let's say two dollars. There's no upper limit on where this should go. It looks like a good long term pick, just based on this chart. But, for a rapid move, I'm saying two dollars or something like that.
OK, I want a no fuss way to buy a fair amount of this with an absolute minimum of risk.
This one day chart of one minute bars isn't showing me too much - the fund isn't too actively traded ... although ... there is a wedge in the first hour and a half of trading. And the final candle is intriguing. Let's say I could buy this at 14.50, and my stop was at 14.45.That's 5 1445ths of risk. My mental calculation is 3% risk. That can't be right. It's .3%. So, very little risk. Of course, you have to add the commission, which is $15 on a round turn, so, 1.5% on a $1000 trade. The total risk comes out to roughly 2% ... $20 ... on a $1000 trade (not that there's any guarantee, so how do you process that?). And the "expected" gain is 2 14ths, roughly 15%, so the risk reward ratio, based on a +10% return, is 1:5. I wonder if that's any good. It would still require that the system be quite reliable.
You can see the pattern on this five day chart, too:
here's a chart that updates I mean, this has to qualify as a very conservative investment, and it pays a monthly 6.4 cent dividend, which is 5% per annum at this price. I we had been watching it a few years ago, when it dipped to $8 and was paying almost 10%, and had bought it, we would be pretty happy, today. Anyway, this trading approach sure feels silly ... but, we'll see what happens.
Next let's look at this one.
I was doing my standard random survey, and had to take a look because, I mean, it's a classic flat top wedge, what can I say?
Is it getting ready to jump up past $9.50, and head for sixteen (which I would guess would take two months). $9.50 could also turn out to be a top, but it's kind of shaping up the other way.
We're gonna do a stop, though, right? Um, in the daily chart there's basically a bottom in at $7.50. Time to take a look at the intraday action.
So, I want to buy at 7.70, or under 7.80, anyway, and my stop would be at 7.40. How does that work out? It's 40 780ths of risk ... 5%. 5% is kind of a lot of risk, although, if we're actually holding out for a double it's not bad.
I can't tell if one of these trades is better than the other one.
Oh, actually, there's a better pattern in the fmsa chart. On July 1, mid day, a flat top wedge - four 15 minute bars. It made, in there, an initial bottom at 7.72, so, buying at the wedge top, tomorrow, 7.82, with a stop at 7.72, our risk is 1.25% (roughly, and you have to add 2% for commissions on a $1000 bet).
Silliness? I guess we'll now get some kind of answer to that question.
I'm gonna do one more. I thought I'd try out a different scan. I made an adjustment and it returned two stocks, one of which is doing a version of what I was looking for in the chart. Kind of cool.
What is this thing? SQQQ? ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ? Why does such a thing even exist? But, it trades millions of shares a day.
And it's obviously headed for 28. Where's the stop?
That's a one day chart of one minute bars. What if I bought it at 18.17 with a stop at 18.03? 14 1817ths risk, works out to 3% risk including commissions on a $1000 trade, 2% risk on a $2000 trade. There's the possibility it can be bought at 18.10. Stop would be the same, and the risk numbers go down by 1%.
A couple of technical notes: you can see enlarged versions by clicking the charts, and we have pretty much decided that all or nothing orders are the way to go. Sure, maybe they don't get filled, but they're better, and not all or nothing orders kind of stink. Also, this would be an order for, oh, um, 100 shares, so, $1800 worth, at limit $18.10. The stop order - that's at $18.03 - isn't all or nothing, maybe.