Wednesday, August 17, 2016

buy THLD at the market


Let's make some money in cancer drugs. I mean, what could be stupider, but the general public takes it very seriously. I've been watching this for several months, and now it's truly moving. It's headed for 9, that's simply the case. But at nine, given its silliness, it will surely be a good time to sell. Still, for the duration of this bull market, it will probably continue upwards, to who know where, in the hundreds. The only thing is, when the bull market is over, it will just as wildly tumble.

A vaguely similar example is GOL. It's the paradoxical nature of the stocks that make them similar. A vary large airline operating in South America, flying - this is my fantasy - into all sorts of improbable places, but operating at a significant loss year after year, and with massive debt. Still, the price is low, by historical standards - that is, according to the ten year chart. It's definitely set to rally back to earlier highs, and it's already moving. But what can support a giant gain in price? Well, those great Andean nations need a public utility such as this, and they're willing to support it. That's how it can sustain all its debt and its losses. (For the very long term I don't think it's a bad investment, just a bit premature. Something weird could happen and a South American operation could become a leading global carrier, somehow. That's the story I'm getting.

These monthly charts are what's really interesting. It's really easy to find examples of this: a stock will move by some huge percent, and not over some very extended period, but in a matter of a few weeks, which means a few months. And it's not like these events are unpredictable. You can see them setting up in the charts. And, what's perhaps more important, low prices tend to persist for months on end before a big move. There are also big down moves in these charts. I'm not the least interested in short selling, but, if you can avoid being in a stock during a big down move, that would be great, and then, from the opposite perspective, those big down moves, if you can interpret them, set up big up moves. That's all folks, but the next obvious problem is how to set up some kind of rational collection of monthly charts.

for the moment it's just about publishing the occasional example


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